Welcome to Statutory Alpha
On AI, the Law, and the Future
I love the website wtfhappenedin1971.com. The site has no adornment, and barely any formatting. Its only offering is a barrage of charts that coincide with the early 70s, each showing a break in some major trend. Some are worrisome—the divergence between productivity and median wages; some are simply funny—who knew 1971 would be such a bad year for chickens?; and all are interesting.1 But each time I visit, I find myself coming back to the chart of the number of lawyers in America, and I suspect it is one of the most underrated features of American government today.
As seen above, the number of lawyers in the US has skyrocketed since 1971.2
US politics is dominated by lawyers and the legal system to an extent that is almost unique in the developed world.3 Our public officials, laws, and society are shaped not just by individual lawyers, but by a system of thought that, through its quirks, constrains what government can and cannot be. Nearly everyone has had a personal experience with the consequences of this mode of thought. Sometimes it's a “Caution: Slippery When Wet” sign on a dry floor. Other times it's a plaintiff abusing the Americans with Disabilities Act to bankrupt a small business.
My goal with Statutory Alpha is to examine how that system is changing, and how AI technology can reform it for the better.
Because make no mistake, the system is changing. The future of artificial intelligence may be hazy, but its present abilities are crystal clear. Legal reasoning is about to become effectively free.4 Many critical safeguards holding the system together (e.g., high barriers to entry, the law school training system), will be undermined by AI. Some already have been. What the legal system will look like on the other side of this shift is anyone’s guess, but the problems it will have to adapt to are emerging now. AI-drafted slop legislation, the nuclearization of nuisance lawsuits, and an automated FOIA request flood are all just around the corner. Even nastier unknown problems likely await us.
Yet for all the disruption AI will bring to our legal system, it will also afford an opportunity to fix many of the system’s worst features. Easy access to legal reasoning could offer justice to millions whom high fees exclude. AI assistants can help those representing themselves navigate court procedure, translate legal jargon into plain English, and level the playing field for those who can’t afford to pay $1000/hr. Contract analysis and arbitration could be automated, driving down costs and making those services accessible to small businesses and individuals. Perhaps most importantly, AI could free us from the scourge of vague legislation and its consequences. Rather than overwhelming the system, AI could empower Americans to once again understand the laws that govern them.
Making the most of this opportunity will require grappling with these issues before they become emergencies. As the old saying goes, “hard cases make bad law,” and emergencies make the worst law of all. It is up to us to determine what good law should be before circumstances force our hand. This blog will be dedicated to exploring that question: How can we adapt our legal system to best take advantage of AI?
Currently: I am taking a look at a group of laws that I suspect is going to interact particularly poorly with AI—I call them ratchet statutes. First up, the National Environmental Policy Act.
For this chart and many more like it, visit wtfhappenedin1971.com
Israel is the one other exception.
At least, the legal reasoning of a median-quality lawyer.